2020 @PredictIt recession prediction market probabilities are now above 40% amid #Coronavirus concerns.
コロナウイルスの懸念が広まるなか，2020 @PredictIt の予測市場で，景気後退の確率がいまや 40% を超えている．
That is from Jon Hartley, and here is his closely related new paper “Recession Prediction Markets and Macroeconomic Risk in Asset Prices.” Here is the prediction market page, at 47 as I am writing.
上記は Jon Hartley のツイート．これと密接に関連する新論文「景気後退の予測市場と資産価格のマクロ経済リスク」はこちら．予測市場のページはこちら．これを書いてるいま，確率は 47% だ．
